With just days left before the new year begins, there is little room for naive optimism. 2026 is already here, and it arrives carrying a weight that citizens and business leaders cannot ignore. Anyone who believes the coming year will sort itself out is mistaken. From the moment the calendar turns, we will be living with the consequences of the 2026 Economic Package. Adjustments, caution, and firm decisions will be essential to get through a period that promises little comfort.
The 2026 Economic Package was presented by the Ministry of Finance amid clear economic slowdown, tensions in international trade, and deep changes to the country’s institutional structure, such as the reform of the Judicial Branch.
It is also the first economic package fully designed by the administration of President Claudia Sheinbaum, which gives it additional political weight. It does not merely define revenues and spending; it sets the course this government intends to follow to maintain macroeconomic stability, send signals of confidence, and meet social commitments.
On paper, the Economic Package lays out how public resources will be raised and how they will be spent. If used properly, the budget could strengthen macroeconomic foundations, support innovation, and sustain infrastructure projects that attract investment and jobs. However, the problem lies not in the intent, but in the figures attached to the document and the context surrounding them.
A fiscal deficit of 3.9% is projected, alongside a 14% cut in infrastructure spending, precisely at a time when consumption is already showing weakness and the economy is dragging a contraction observed throughout 2025. Less public investment means less indirect economic activity, weaker momentum for productive sectors, and greater pressure on the private sector. There is no way around it: this adjustment limits the room for growth.
For businesses, the message is clear. Formal employment is likely to grow only marginally, while operating costs continue to rise. In this environment, efficiency stops being a recommendation and becomes an obligation. Automating processes, adjusting internal structures, and watching every peso will be necessary to survive. Failing to do so is a voluntary decision to fall behind.
Adding to this outlook is a factor that cannot be talked away: insecurity. Organized crime continues to erode purchasing power and deter investment. High levels of corruption and violence directly disrupt supply chains and increase operational risks. Crime indicators act as a real brake on private investment, which is why few companies make long-term decisions when basic certainty is not guaranteed.
With all this on the table, 2026 will not be an easy year for Mexican businesses. Growth is expected to be modest, according to forecasts from ECLAC (1.3%) and Banxico (1.8%), and the risks will demand resilience, clear-headedness, and planning.
For citizens, the scenario calls for better management of resources and an understanding that the margin for error will be limited. For business leaders, the message is even more direct: those who fail to prepare now will pay the price later. The 2026 Economic Package is not a threat, but it is not a guarantee either. It is a warning — and it should be taken seriously.
